Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 13.086515 15.931623 19.094288 22.849167 27.163212 31.942136 37.613086
2026-01-25 8.737950 12.301149 16.704005 22.450916 29.653619 38.278984 49.276264
2026-02-01 6.554607 10.377513 15.510326 22.703129 32.299082 44.426555 60.649872
2026-02-08 4.920360 8.691515 14.151682 22.293548 33.745051 48.873017 69.905365
2026-02-15 3.706199 7.285544 12.854198 21.646230 34.610047 52.410183 77.986185
2026-02-22 3.081996 6.645047 12.535254 22.280678 37.202514 58.319779 89.440837
2026-03-01 2.424690 5.778740 11.691917 21.958859 38.287896 62.097970 98.065589
2026-03-08 1.968358 5.162737 11.143269 21.992459 39.840334 66.554326 107.778358
2026-03-15 1.488085 4.362146 10.122037 21.087863 39.796720 68.586633 114.017482
2026-03-22 1.275922 4.082090 10.007719 21.704194 42.200273 74.379381 125.976156
2026-03-29 1.070284 3.756915 9.746243 22.009832 44.080588 79.423745 136.984874
2026-04-05 0.908229 3.491648 9.558309 22.414888 46.129818 84.797262 148.667670
2026-04-12 0.771198 3.268242 9.460067 23.052360 48.754973 91.424283 162.895869
2026-04-19 0.592745 2.854541 8.866379 22.655197 49.534067 95.137055 172.810522
2026-04-26 0.483321 2.610118 8.614993 22.909494 51.488511 100.851224 186.082492
2026-05-03 0.367617 2.281645 8.083632 22.496995 52.148281 104.394476 195.973754
2026-05-10 0.269657 1.957574 7.484034 21.845013 52.275417 106.999218 204.397374
2026-05-17 0.228186 1.852521 7.461091 22.484034 54.947505 114.113671 220.470506
2026-05-24 0.171567 1.631004 7.048929 22.159899 55.665997 117.804863 230.949965
2026-05-31 0.133877 1.476991 6.801694 22.193741 57.098286 122.810143 243.785148
2026-06-07 0.090548 1.236760 6.208484 21.282596 56.487804 124.069199 250.260817
2026-06-14 0.075752 1.177817 6.214246 21.903395 59.152851 131.433222 267.453906
2026-06-21 0.060232 1.093345 6.107159 22.211239 61.155741 137.634687 282.799471